Information Policies and Integration of BiH and Montenegro in the EU

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Hybrid Warfare Research Institute, Zagreb, Croatia

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Institute for Socio-Political Research, Mostar, 

Bosna i Hercegovina

Gordan Akrap, Vedran Matošić, Dražen Barbarić, Ana-Mari Bošnjak, Ivan Kraljević, Branimir Galić, Martin Mikulić, 

Atlantic Council of Montenegro

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Zagreb 2026.

Mostar 2026.

ISBN: 978-953-47211-1-7

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Print preparation: Davor Maričić, Institute for Electronic Business Ltd., www.INSTITUT.hr  

Print:  PRESSUM – University of Mostar, Mostar, Bosnia and Herzegovina

Co-financed by the Ministry of Foreign and European Affairs of the Republic of Croatia:
VIII-JP-OCD-01-2022/5

Copyright:

Cover photo: Gordan Akrap and Artificial Intelligence

Executive Summary 1

1. Information environment in Federation of  Bosnia and Herzegovina 13

1.1. Introduction 13

1.1.1. The Construction of the "Serbo-Croat Axis" and the Myth of the Division of Bosnia and Herzegovina 18

1.1.2. Interference of the Republic of Croatia in internal processes in BiH and discrediting the OHR 19

1.1.3. The Kovačević case 19

1.1.4. Historical revisionism and the emphasis on the alleged JCE 20

1.1.5. "Institutional and Intellectual" Narrative Generators: Circle 99 and IFIMES 20

1.2. The Construction of the "Serbo-Croat Axis" and the Myth of the Division of Bosnia and Herzegovina 21

1.3. Interference of the Republic of Croatia in internal processes in BiH and discrediting the OHR 45

1.4. Unfounded and tendentious historical revisionism in the service of attempts to discredit the Republic of Croatia 59

1.5. Discrediting Croatia and Croatian officials 71

1.6. International corruption and Islamophobia in the EU 91

1.7. Demonization of American analyst Max Primorac 99

1.8. IFIMES – Association from Ljubljana, Slovenia 126

1.9. Avdo Avdić – ban on entering Croatia 129

2. Analysis of the media portrayal of the Republic of Croatia in the media of the Republika Srpska 131

2.1. Research methodology 132

2.3. Theoretical framework 134

2.4. The Cemeteries Act as a Case Study 135

2.5. Media Narratives, Historical Context and Perception of Endangerment 137

2.6. Political-legal narrative of endangerment of Serbs 138

2.7. Historical narrative 143

2.8. The Narrative of the Rights of Exiled Serbs 146

2.9. Ecological and territorial narrative 148

2.10. Cultural and identity narrative 151

2.11. Internationalization and military-strategic narratives 153

2.12. Rhetorical and media strategies 154

2.13. Internationalization and delegitimization of international actors 155

2.14. Media coverage of Croatian political actors 157

2.14.1. Andrej Plenković – Prime Minister of the Republic of Croatia 157

2.14.2. Zoran Milanović – President of the Republic of Croatia 159

2.15. Conclusion 160

3. Information operations related to the written Study on energy (in)dependence of BiH 162

4. Information environment in Montenegro 176

4.1. Introduction 176

4.2. Deconstruction of history in the service of affirmation of Pro-Serbian Politics 178

4.3. Institutions of Croatia as promoters of the Ustasha movement and destabilization of political and security conditions in neighboring countries 193

4.4. Personal discrediting of Croatian and Montenegrin politicians who act from different positions 203

4.5. Conclusion 210

5. Public opinion Research in Bosnia and Herzegovina 213

5.1. Description of the characteristics of the sample 216

5.2. Attitudes towards Bosnia and Herzegovina's accession to the European Union 221

5.3. Perception of the Croatian role in the process of BiH integration in EU 224

5.4. Differences in the perception of Croatia regarding socio-demographic characteristics 227

5.4.1. Gender differences 229

5.4.2. Generational differences 229

5.4.3. Education 230

5.4.4. Ethnicity 231

5.4.5. Entity context 232

5.4.6. Political orientation 233

5.5. Composite measure of perception of the Republic of Croatia 234

5.6. Predictors of perception of the Republic of Croatia 237

5.7. Perception of the Croatian experience and media environment in the process of EU integration of BiH: analysis of nominal variables 239

5.7.1. Perception of the Benefits of Croatia’s Experience in EU Accession 241

5.7.2. Perception of the Role of the Republic of Croatia in the EU Integration of BiH 241

5.8. Media and information environment 242

5.8.1. Generational Differences in the Perception of being Informed 242

5.8.2. Ideological segmentation of information reception 243

5.8.3. Education and choice of sources of information 244

5.8.4. Ideological perception of negative media narratives 244

5.8.5. The identity dimension of media trust 245

5.8.6. Trust in Croatian media 245

5.8.7. Qualitative insights from the open question 246

5.9. Conclusion 249

6. Public Opinion Research in Montenegro - attitudes of young people in Montenegro on the EU integration of Montenegro 254

 

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In the modern information environment, the media are no longer just intermediaries in the transfer of information between different political actors and the target public. They represent one of the key factors in shaping perceptions, social identities, interpretation of history, collective understanding of reality and projection of desirable futures. In societies marked by complex political relations, historical disputes and unresolved social, political, economic, security and institutional issues, media content often goes beyond the function of informing. They become an important instrument of political interpretation, framing reality using  different messages and symbols, and constructing social narratives. Bosnia and Herzegovina, as a country marked by a complex constitutional structure, multiple identity layers and long-standing political and social disputes, represents a particularly relevant space for studying the relationship between the media, politics, and public discourse. Montenegro is in a remarkably similar, demanding and challenging moment, burdened with numerous open issues, some of which even reach for the abolition of its statehood.

Conflicts and wars are no longer fought exclusively in the physical domain, on the classic battlefield. In addition to military, political, security, social, intelligence and security, religious, digital, and economic instruments of power, the information space is one of the key areas in which a strategic competition takes place between varied factors (states, political movements, interest groups and individuals). The battle to control narratives, shape perceptions and direct the cognitive processes of the public is an integral part of almost every political and social process. The ability to influence the individual, group, and collective perception of social reality, and thus the decision-making process, has become one of the most valuable resources of modern times.

In such a context, the media play an extremely important role because with their choice of topics, the way of interpreting events, the choice of interlocutors and the use of certain linguistic patterns and narratives, they actively participate in shaping the perception and interpretation of political processes. The media are no longer just transmitters of information. They are an important factor that shapes the information space, participating in the creation of interpretative frameworks which are used by different audiences to interpret political events, international relations and social processes. The boundary between information, political activism, strategic communication, and information action is becoming increasingly blurred. That is why the analysis of media content today is not only a question of the existence of journalistic ethics or information and communication research. It is also an issue that is associated with social and political stability and national security. It is especially important to understand how the media represent neighboring countries and their political actors, since information content directly affects public opinion, interstate relations, and political communication.

Three decades after the signing of the Washington Agreement and the Dayton Peace Agreements, Bosnia and Herzegovina still faces numerous challenges regarding the functioning of the political system, relations between constituent peoples, the process of European integration and the defining its own position within the regional and international environment. Bosnia and Herzegovina is one of the most sensitive information environments in Europe. Its complex constitutional architecture, numerous unresolved political issues, deep identity divisions, and permanent exposure to internal and external political influences create a space in which media narratives have an exceptional power of shaping reality. The information space of Bosnia and Herzegovina is therefore not only an arena for public debate, but also a space in which social perceptions of legitimacy, political affiliation, collective identities and various models of possible future development of the state are formed.

The Republic of Croatia occupies a special place in the political, information and media space of Bosnia and Herzegovina. As a member of the European Union and NATO, a signatory to the Dayton Agreements and a country that shares the longest land border with Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia is an indispensable factor in preserving the stability and security of BiH. At the same time, due to its protection of the constitutional rights of the Croat people in Bosnia and Herzegovina, who are one of the three equal and constituent peoples, Croatian policy towards BiH is regularly the subject of intense political discussions, different interpretations and often contradictory media coverage. Both in BiH and in certain circles in the Republic of Croatia. That is why the way certain media interpret the open issues of BiH's possible integration into the EU and NATO, and Croatian institutions and Croatian political representatives related to these processes, is an important indicator of the political and social situation (as well as processes) in BiH.

Bosnia and Herzegovina is not the only information environment observed in this study. The research also covers the information and media space of Montenegro, a country that has been undergoing intense political, identity and geopolitical transformations in recent years. As in Bosnia and Herzegovina, media discourse in Montenegro often goes beyond the framework of classical reporting and becomes a space for the confrontation of different political, religious, national, and geopolitical narratives. The study shows that certain patterns of interpretation and presentation of the Republic of Croatia, Croatian politics and regional relations appear in both observed (information and media) systems, although in different intensities and in accordance with specific local peculiarities and contexts. That is why this study does not look at individual publications as isolated occurrences but seeks to identify broader (and regional) trends that influence the formation of perceptions, political attitudes and interstate relations in Southeast Europe.

Hybrid Warfare Research Institute, together with its partners, continuously monitors phenomena that can negatively affect the stability of BiH and Montenegro, the reliability and credibility of information spaces in BiH and Montenegro, the development and complexity of interethnic relations, and the achieved level of resilience of democratic processes. This study was created as a result of the need for a systematic analysis of media content related to the accession of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro to the EU, relations with the Republic of Croatia and the creation of narratives about Croatian and foreign factors, with special emphasis on the position of the Croatian people in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro in the observed period. 

The subject of the research includes media coverage of selected television companies, internet portals, political shows, commentary content, and author's analyses published during 2025 and 2026. Hundreds of media releases, shows, texts, commentaries, interviews, and political analyses published on the most influential television stations and internet portals were analyzed. The aim of the research was not to evaluate the political views of individual media outlets or to limit the right to criticize political actors. Namely, democratic societies are based on freedom of expression, pluralism of opinions and open public debate. However, it is important to analyze phenomena in which information crosses the boundary of professional reporting and becomes an instrument for shaping political perceptions by selectively presenting information and tendentiously interpreting facts, emotionally framing events or systematically repeating predefined narratives. We have already written numerous analyses of false information content during the implementation of the Athens project (www.iihs.hr/atena). We pay special attention to the identification of dominant communication patterns, repetitive narratives, rhetorical strategies and discursive techniques that influence the formation of public opinions and attitudes.

The research published here is based on a qualitative analysis of the content. This allows for a detailed study of the way in which certain topics are presented to the public. The analytical framework includes the study of the choice of topics, titles, symbolic elements, sources used, value qualifications, emotional messages, and patterns of interpretation. Special emphasis is put on recognizing the elements of selective reporting and distribution of untruths, sensationalism, political bias, propaganda patterns and communication techniques that try to influence the formation of public opinion. The results of the research indicate the existence of several dominant narrative patterns that appear in different media and are distributed through different communication channels. These patterns go beyond individual journalistic reports or isolated editorial decisions. Certain topics, political actors and events are often interpreted through predefined ideological and political frameworks. We can notice patterns that include the personalization of political conflicts, the symbolic connection of contemporary events with historical conflicts, the creation of simplified models of interpretation, and the use of emotionally strong narratives for the purpose of mobilizing one's own audience, deepening existing ones while introducing additional divisions. Such phenomena deserve special attention because they have the characteristics of malicious information operations of influence aimed at long-term formation of the corpus of public knowledge of the target audiences. And thus, the impact on decision-making processes over a longer period.

A special research focus is put on the phenomenon of negative impacts from the spectrum of hybrid threats, with an emphasis on their information component. Media, social networks, digital platforms, and various forms of public communication are increasingly used to try to shape the corpus of public knowledge. In this context, information analysis allows for a better understanding of how political messages are created, shared, and received within certain social groups.

Particularly worrying is the fact that some of the analyzed content is not based on the classic journalistic function of informing, but on the creation of symbolic constructions that present individual political actors, institutions or states through predefined patterns of moral and political delegitimization. In such information environment, facts become less important, they are subordinated to the desired narrative. Political opponents cease to be legitimate interlocutors and turn into opponents who are attributed with negative intentions, hidden agendas and historical responsibility for various social problems.

The analysis of the media space of Montenegro shows the existence of a relatively consistent set of narratives that present the Republic of Croatia as a political, security and identity opponent of the Serbian people and a part of the Montenegrin public. Unlike the Bosniak media space in Bosnia and Herzegovina, which is filled with accusations of an alleged Croatian-Serbian agreement to the detriment of Bosnia and Herzegovina, in the pro-Serb media of Montenegro, Croatia is primarily portrayed as the heir to the hostile policy towards the Serbs and as a regional exponent of Euro-Atlantic interests directed against Serbia and the Serbian political factor in the Western Balkans.

In the observed period, online portals stood out through commentaries, original texts, political statements and interpretations, which systematically create and repeat negative narratives about Croatia as a country that uses membership in the European Union and NATO to exert political pressure on the countries of the Western Balkans. At the same time, Croatia is not presented as an equal partner or a neighboring country that legitimately represents its own national interests, but as a factor that acts from a position of political supremacy, mentoring and blackmail. With such an approach, Croatia is described as hegemonistic, trying to politically discipline Bosnia and Herzegovina as well as Montenegro, while any form of compromise or dialogue by a part of the political elites from these countries is presented as an expression of their weakness, on a personal and institutional level. 

The second information form is based on the constant connection of the contemporary Republic of Croatia with the Independent State of Croatia and the Ustasha movement. In the analyzed media content, events from contemporary political and social life are often interpreted through the prism of the World War II, creating the impression of historical continuity between the Independent State of Croatia and today's Croatian state. Such an approach is especially evident in reporting on sporting events, music events, fan incidents, and discussions about the education system. Individual incidents or statements are attributed to the entire Croatian society, while sporadic occurrences are presented as evidence of alleged institutional tolerance of extremism. The consequence of such a discourse is the creation of an image of Croatia as a state that has not cleared up its own past and that continues to pursue hostile policies towards Serbs and Serbian identity.

The third dominant narrative portrays Croatia as part of a broader Western political and security project aimed at limiting Serbia's influence in the Western Balkans. In this framework, Croatian foreign policy is presented as an extended arm of the malign interests of the European Union, NATO, Germany, or certain Western countries. The analyzed contents often suggest the existence of coordinated political, media, and diplomatic activities directed against the interests of Serbia. 

The study shows that such information and communicational processes do not occur spontaneously. They are created by long-term repetition of the same information content and communication patterns, the use of the same sources, the repetition of the same interpretations, and the inclusion of certain political, media and quasi-academic authorities that give certain narratives the illusion of professional, international, or scientific legitimacy. It is in this constant repetition that their real strength lies. The goal of modern information operations is not necessarily to convince the audience of a certain claim, but to create an emotional and cognitive framework within which certain claims will seem logical, expected, and self-evident.

This study does not aim to make final judgments of political and social reality or to offer solutions to the complex issues of relations in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro. The study seeks to contribute to the development of scientific research of the media, political communication, and information operations in these countries, but also to open a space for expert discussion on the role of the media in BiH and Montenegro and the malicious shaping of public knowledge. In times when the information space is recognized and understood as another domain in which conflicts and wars take place (along with land, sea, air, space and cyberspace), the ability to recognize malicious patterns of shaping public knowledge becomes the issue on which the strategic resilience of every society is based. Democratic systems cannot be defended solely by military or security mechanisms. Their long-term stability depends on the quality of the space of public knowledge, citizens' trust in institutions, and the ability of society to distinguish facts from untruths and propaganda, arguments from political constructions, and legitimate criticism from systematic discrediting.

Therefore, this study is not just a review of media releases over a period. It represents an attempt to understand the deeper processes that shape the contemporary information space of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro. Its purpose is not to produce new divisions, but to contribute to the understanding of the mechanisms by which public knowledge, and thus social relations, in the observed countries are maliciously shaped. Only with a reasoned, documented and methodologically based analysis is it possible to build resilience to disinformation, propaganda and other forms of malicious information activities that undermine the quality of public debate and social unity in the long run.

For the academic community, the results of the research represent a valuable contribution to the study of the relationship between media, identity and politics in societies and countries with many open questions. For the world of media, this study can serve as an incentive for further reflection on professional standards, their co-responsibility for the state of public knowledge, and the importance of balanced, objective, truthful and complete reporting. In a broader social sense, this study contributes to the understanding of how information shapes the perceptions of political actors, international relations, regional cooperation, and points to the need to develop a resilient, free, transparent and plural public information space and media environment.

With this publication, the Hybrid Warfare Research Institute and its partners want to contribute to the development of a culture of critical thinking in the information space and to open an academic and professional discussion on the role of the media in shaping political processes in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro. We believe that such a discussion is a prerequisite for strengthening democratic resilience, mutual trust and stability both in these countries and in the Western Balkans.

At a time when battles for territory are increasingly being replaced by battles for perception, understanding the ways (as well as instruments) of shaping the information space is becoming as important as understanding the political, economic, religious, historical and security processes. That is why this study is not only an analysis of the information environment and the media image of these countries. This study is an analysis of the information environments of the two countries, one of the key spaces in which political and social reality is shaped (maliciously) today to influence their future.

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